An unpredictable January vote

The City Paper is reporting that Councilman Eric Crafton's English only measure may be on the ballot on January 22 next year. But what will the turnout be like? The last time we had a January election in Nashville was January 19, 1988 with a 30.58 percent turnout. Granted, it involved a Congressional race, but that is a far greater turnout than I would have expected. No surprise, but January is Nashville's coldest month with an average temperature of 36.2 degrees. More significantly, there are 21 days below freezing. Additionally, it's 2 days after Inauguration Day.

If Nashville voters are politicked out and there's ice on the roads, I can't see turnout above 15 percent. Then it becomes a question of who can turn out the activists. In that scenario, Crafton has the advantage because of his existing list of petition signers.