Evangelicals taking their time

The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life has released a survey on religion and opinion in the presidential race that shows that John McCain has less of a lead among Evangelicals than President Bush did in either of the previous two elections.

But Evangelicals don't appear to be flocking to Senator Obama. Despite being comfortable with the languages of Evangelicalism, Obama is nevertheless a little behind John Kerry and Al Gore's performance with this group.

Why? Is it because of the steadily rising profile of center and left-leaning Evangelicals like those associated with Sojourners? I don't think so, although that may be a factor in allowing Obama to hold a quarter of the group. Is it the fact that McCain has had trouble with Evangelical leaders like James Dobson and the late Jerry Falwell? That is obviously relevant.

But what the results may be showing are the effects of a process of soul searching and identity clarification. In particular, some Evangelicals are increasingly uncomfortable with the movement being popularly identified with politics and the culture wars.

If McCain loses the Evangelicals, Dobson and company won't be able to take all the credit. A growing fatigue with politics might be the silent killer. At this point, it is difficult to imagine John McCain getting 79% of their votes, as President Bush reportedly did in 2004. Bush picked up 10 points among them from June to November. What would it take for John McCain to pick up 18 points to reach that same mark? A miracle.

I-40 Mike

Tonight Mike Padgett was kicking off early voting in Knoxville and will be in Memphis by Saturday. The I-40 run highlights the Democratic Senate candidate's push throughout the state:

“I have connected with Tennesseans from the smallest counties to the biggest Metro areas, in all 95 counties, and a red plaid shirt is about all they can recall about their current U.S. senator."

Both campaigns have done a good job of putting out information about their candidates; the media have not decided to pick up what they're laying down, though. That's a shame.

If it weren't for blogs, I'm not sure anyone would be paying attention to the primary. In the end, I think nothing overwhelmingly positive or negative stuck to either candidate in the public's imagination. So we are left with Bob Tuke's fundraising advantage and Mike Padgett's concerted effort to be everywhere.

Kurita adverts running in the Nashville market

On the way to work this morning, I heard the end of a radio ad for the reelection of Senator Rosalind Kurita. All I could make out was something about veterans--a good note to sound for her district, to be sure. I looked for an audio file of the ad on her site, but I couldn't find anything.

Early Voting Begins on Friday, July 18

Early voting begins tomorrow in Shelby County in anticipation of August 7.

Party primary races include US Senate, US House Districts 7, 8, and 9, and Tennessee Senate and House seats. Some of the Primary races are likely to determine the outcome of the November general election (e.g., US Senate races, US House Districts 7 & 9 and many of the other state senate and house races). Shelby County will also be voting for a Criminal Court Judge, Assessor, Trustee, County School Board members, and whether to retain State Appeal and Supreme Court Judges.

There are also important ballot initiatives (see 360, 361 A & B) to amend the Shelby County charter that will affect the number of terms that county commissioners and the the county mayor may serve and will define which county offices will be elected.

Go vote! Here's the information you need to know to vote early:

NOTICE OF EARLY VOTING
AUGUST 7, 2008
FEDERAL & STATE PRIMARY AND COUNTY GENERAL ELECTION
Pursuant to Sec. 2-6-103, Tennessee Code Annotated, notice is hereby given by the Shelby County Election Commission of unrestricted early voting for the August 7, 2008, Federal & State

Primary and County General Election as follows:
Site Locations, Dates and Times

SHELBY COUNTY ELECTION COMMISSION157 POPLAR AVE., SUITE 121

Beginning on Friday, July 18, 2008 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM

Saturday, July 19, 2008 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM

Monday, July 21 through Wednesday, July 23, 2008 10:00 AM to 8:00 PM

Weekdays: July 24 through August 1, 2008 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM

Saturdays: July 26 and August 2, 2008 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM

Satellite Sites

Weekdays: July 24 through August 1, 2008 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM

Saturdays: July 26 and August 2, 2008 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM

LOCATION NAME
LOCATION ADDRESS

Anointed Temple Of Praise(Youth Room)
3939 Riverdale Rd., 38141

Baker Community Center
7942 Church St., 38053

Bethel Church
5586 Stage Rd., 38134

Berclair Church of Christ
4536 Summer Ave., 38122

Bishop Byrne High School
1475 E. Shelby Dr., 38116

Collierville Old Town Hall(Replaces Collierville Church of Christ)
101 Walnut St., 38017

Dave Wells Community Center
915 Chelsea Ave., 38107

Glenview Community Center(Replaces New Salem Church)
1141 S. Barksdale St., 38114

Greater Middle Baptist Church(Fellowship Hall)
4982 Knight Arnold Rd., 38118

Mid-America Baptist Theological Seminary(Replaces Faith Baptist Church)
2095 Appling Rd.; 38016

Mississippi Blvd. Pre-School Cafeteria(Replaces Mississippi Blvd Church Counseling Center)
70 N. Bellevue Blvd. 38104

Mt. Pleasant Baptist Church(Fellowship Bldg)
3045 Chelsea Ave., 38107

New Bethel Baptist Church - Family Life Center
7786 Poplar Pike, 38138

Pyramid Recovery Center
1833 S. Third St., 38109

Raleigh United Methodist Church
3295 Powers Rd., 38128

Shiloh Baptist Church
3121 Range Line Rd., 38127

Westwood High School
4480 Westmont St., 38109

White Station Church of Christ
1106 Colonial Rd., 38117

Click to display map of the EV Sites

Pursuant to Sec. 2-6-102, TCA, a voter who desires to vote early shall go to the County Election Commission office or to any of the satellite locations listed above within the hours set out for the early voting period, sign an application for ballot and vote. Pursuant to Sec. 2-7-140 (c) (1) voters who are already registered can make address changes at an early voting site. For further information, call 545-4132.
SHELBY COUNTY ELECTION COMMISSIONMyra Stiles, ChairmanRichard L. Holden, SecretaryRobert D. MeyersO. C. Pleasant, Jr. Shep Wilbun, Jr.

McCain backtracks on adoption

When John McCain recently said that he opposes adoption by gays and lesbians, he was expressing a personal view or a view designed to appeal to some social conservatives rather than a policy position. His team is now saying that Senator McCain believes the matter should be left up to the states. That's basically a status quo policy position since adoption and family law are largely state considerations.

...his campaign lurched back to the center Tuesday with a clarifying statement saying “he recognizes that there are many abandoned children who have yet to find homes” and “believes that in those situations that caring parental figures are better for the child than the alternative."

I don't know whether such a clarified position will be enough for McCain to get the nod from groups like the Log Cabin Republicans. But I believe it will help him capture at least the 25% of the GLBT vote that President Bush received. In many states that have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage, adoption is the big battleground. And it energizes the GLBT community far more than relationship recognition issues. In Tennessee, we saw that very clearly in 2005 and 2008 when some lawmakers attempted to pass versions of adoption bans. Both efforts generated thousands of contacts with legislators and a concerted response that helped defeat the bills. Attacking the ability and rights of gays and lesbians to be parents strikes a deep chord in red states.

Crafton in the Lead: Part 3

A hat tip to Mr. Kleinheider for this post by Mike Byrd, with which I have to agree. Eric Crafton is still dominating the coverage of the English-only ballot measure. There are certainly tough questions that reporters could be asking about the initiative, including the funding.

The only qualification I would add is that what would help drive the press to ask tough questions is someone, some group standing up and organizing the opposition to Crafton's effort. Sorry to say it again, but it's now the middle of July and we haven't heard a serious peep out of the opposition in weeks. It is not dishonorable to lose; not fighting back is a pathway to regret.

TEP learned the hard way during the marriage amendment campaign that you can never get back the time when you weren't organizing.